In my movie ROI database of over 2400 titles going back to 1924, only 111 of them managed to pay back less than $0.50 of revenue for each budget dollar. In an industry that typically needs $2 just to break even (as marketing is not usually included in the production budget), 50 cents just isn't going to cut it.
Moonfall has stumbled to $58M in revenue on a budget of $146M, a dismal return of $0.40, which is a gentle way of saying this movie lost a crap-ton of money (~$117M).
Of the six movies in my dbase directed by Roland Emmerich, this is the worst box office performance of them all, and he's not known for lighting up the box office to begin with.
The average ROI across the 2500+ movies in my dbase is $3.71. Emmerich's six movies average $3.27, BUT, if we take out the anomaly, Independence Day (which paid a handsome $10.89), the other five mustered a meagre $2.60 - he makes money, just, not very much.
Of course, as we all know, box office is not a great way to evaluate a movie's quality - great films don't always make a lot of money, and there are some crappy movies out there that made tons of money.
But considering Emmerich's 1) reputation, 2) body of work, and 3) track record, I'd suggest it was utter hubris to release this movie in the winter, coming out of a pandemic, and expect it to have done good business, such that the results aren't a surprise at all. He needs all the help he can get to make money at the best of times.
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Reply by wonder2wonder
on June 1, 2022 at 8:52 AM
It was an entertaining movie, but one that will never have a sequel.
Reply by DRDMovieMusings
on August 1, 2022 at 1:49 AM
Methinks you're right.
In my movie ROI database, I've got 219 movie franchises [Edit: excluding any direct-to-video sequels that did not have a theatrical release], and only one of them had ROI below $1.
Odds are, this movie will not be the 2nd!
That said, there are nine with ROI between $1 and $2...so, ten that did not pay above investment. Bottom line, it's, understandably, really difficult to motivate producers to invest in a movie that appears to have little chance of paying them back, and even more difficult to "throw good money after bad", to do a sequel for a movie that lost money.